Keywords
Cellular Automata
QGIS
Land Use Prediction
Abstract
Rapid changes in population dynamics and economic development have a significant impact on the availability of cultivated land resources. The pursuit of economic growth drives various anthropogenic activities, encompassing both vertical and horizontal development, leading to the continuous conversion of agricultural lands into built-up areas. To address these challenges, this study investigates the spatial expansion of rural built-up areas and their impact on agricultural lands in Urbiztondo, Pangasinan. It further examines the factors influencing this spatial transformation, such as population growth, infrastructure development, accessibility, and proximity to economic centers, and forecasts built-up area expansion for the year 2037. Using Quantum Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) and Cellular Automata (CA) modeling, the study analyzes the historical land-use patterns and simulates future changes. The results reveal that built-up areas are projected to increase by 131.78 hectares between 2016 and 2037, resulting in an equivalent loss of agricultural land. The findings underscore the role of demographic pressure and infrastructure-driven development in shaping rural land use. This study emphasizes the importance of spatial dynamics monitoring to inform local policies and strategic land-use planning aimed at mitigating the progressive loss of agricultural lands in Urbiztondo.
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